By: Nathaniel David Dandasu
Policy Analyst and Political Historian
Nasir El-Rufai is currently the most controversial politician in Nigerian political history. He is known for his mastery of manipulation to advance his personal political career. Opinion makers argue that his recent defection to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) stems from frustration over not being appointed a Minister in the Tinubu administration.
The question remains: does El-Rufai matter in northern Nigeria politics? The answer is yes and partially no. To provide insight, let’s compare him to notable northern politicians like Atiku Abubakar, Kashim Shettima, Namadi Sambo, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Aminu Tambuwal, Bala Muhammad, and Shehu Sani.
Assuming all eight politicians, including El-Rufai, indicate interest in a presidential contest, the outcome would be intriguing. In the North West, El-Rufai would likely defeat other heavyweights among the masses due to his perceived strong Muslim stance. This perception has been fueled by his Muslim-Muslim ticket governorship in Kaduna and bigoted utterances against the southern Kaduna people and the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) in a video that went viral. That video has made many Muslim faithfuls, especially from the North West, idolize him and consider him their mentor.
Consequently, many commoners in the North West view El-Rufai as more Muslim than the others. However, a few critical thinkers might not side with him. Among the North West elite, they recognize El-Rufai’s tactics of using religion and deceit to advance his selfish ambition. He also stated in media outings that there are no elders in the North.
El-Rufai’s followers should be aware that security reports presented to the Senate during his ministerial screening played a significant role in his rejection. Additionally, his visit to Lagos, where he boasted to Governor Ambode that “I ended godfatherism in Kaduna politics, same can be done in Lagos,” was also a contributing factor. It’s unlikely that Tinubu took kindly to that statement. Ultimately, you can’t have your cake and eat it; El-Rufai’s actions and words had consequences.
In same North West, in a presidential contest, Atiku Abubakar would be accepted by a large number of elites due to his established structure and previous years of contest. Without Atiku, Kwankwaso might be considered. Between the masses and elites, the masses form the majority of voters, accounting for nearly 80-90%. Therefore, El-Rufai would still be ahead in the North West.
In the North West, Shehu Sani is likely to face significant opposition due to his perceived advocacy for liberalism and secularism, which conflicts with the region’s dominant conservative and religious sentiments. In contrast, Shehu Sani’s liberal ideology may be more acceptable in the North Central (Middle Belt) and Southern Nigeria, potentially making him more popular than El-Rufai in these regions.
Last year, Senator Shehu Sani, a known vocal critic of El-Rufai, expressed concerns that plans to unseat Tinubu in 2027 could lead to disunity. His admiration for Tinubu’s liberal and inclusive governance, combined with his criticism of El-Rufai, has contributed to his unpopularity among the North West masses with the exception of Southern Kaduna and Southern Kebbi. This is particularly significant given the national government’s Muslim-Muslim ticket presidency, leading some to believe that El-Rufai, a proponent of this ticket, deserves a cabinet position.
In the North East, El-Rufai would lead among the few Hausa and Fulani communities, but Atiku would dominate the region. Without Atiku, Shettima would win due to the North East’s multi-religious and cultural society. Notably, El-Rufai cannot come third or fourth in the North East.
In North Central (Middle Belt) and Southern Nigeria, Atiku Abubakar would secure a landslide victory over all others. This is because, in these regions, little attention is given to religion, and voters are often divided along tribal lines.
Among the seven candidates mentioned earlier, El-Rufai would come last in the combined North Central and Southern votes. However, in the North West, particularly among Hausa and Fulani communities, El-Rufai would defeat all others due to the strong influence of religion.
El-Rufai is calculative, recognizing the importance of religious manipulation among the North West masses. Most Islamic religious scholars from the Hausa and Fulani communities support El-Rufai.
But would votes from the North West alone secure a presidential victory? El-Rufai, being a ‘smart’ guy, will likely use his acceptability in the masses of the North West to negotiate with any presidential candidate for a VP slot or a juicy federal appointment.
If El-Rufai harbors any presidential ambitions, he will suffer a crushing defeat in this complex society called Nigeria. I believe he does not have presidential ambitions for now but seeks to remain politically relevant after being frustrated and humiliated by the Tinubu administration.
Additionally, El-Rufai’s iron-fist governance of Muslims and Christians in Kaduna is well-known. Many Muslims still see it as nothing because he has appealed to their religious sentiment. In reality, is El-Rufai doing it for the sake of the religion of Islam or for personal gains? This is subject to intense debate.
The 2023 election results in Kaduna State are also telling. Many Kaduna Muslims disliked El-Rufai because Atiku of the PDP won Kaduna, not his candidate Tinubu of the APC. Governor Uba Sani nearly lost the election in 2023, not because he is a bad person, but because many people felt El-Rufai would use him as a puppet.
Notably, all three senators in Kaduna were from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and 9 out of 16 federal representatives were PDP, with 2 from the Labour Party. However, it is now obvious that the current governor of Kaduna is building peace with those people El-Rufai fought and reconciled with the Southern Kaduna people ahead of 2027.
I foresee El-Rufai’s Muslim-Muslim ticket agenda in Kaduna not exceeding 2027, and the M-M presidential ticket not exceeding 2031. As its stance, the possibility of the APC M-M presidential ticket sailing through 2027 is a 50-50 chance.
In conclusion, the majority of the North West masses (Hausa and Fulani communities) and a few elites solidly support El-Rufai, particularly outside Kaduna. His fan base, mostly uneducated in Western education, cannot write to defend him on social media, but engaging them in one-on-one discussions in Hausa reveals widespread support.
What baffles me is that El-Rufai now claims to defend the oppressed masses, presenting himself as a champion of the people, which is a stark contrast to his previous actions as a governor. A sudden comrade, wonders shall never end.
